WestLB EM Monitor Page

Deutsche Version

An Excel tool to track the UEFA Euro 2008

A free Excel Tool for managing the schedule of the Euro 2008 football / soccer championship, complemented with latest match probabilities from betting odds.

Key features:

  1. Enter your personal score forecast for each match and check its probability. (see screenshot)
  2. Check out the impact on the further course of the tournament (group standings, finals).
  3. If you do not want to enter forecasts for all matches, press the button "Estimate Results" to fill in the most likely outcomes for the remaining matches, based on current betting odds.
  4. Load the latest actual score results from web. (see screenshot)
  5. Compare each country's outright probability to win the Euro 2008.
  6. For more information, please refer to the detailed manual.

This tool is freeware and a promotional measure for WestLB Research.

New version from June 10th, 2008.
100% CLEAN award granted by Softpedia.

Enter your personal match forecasts and check their probabilities

Screenshot worksheet EM


Estimate match results based on betting markets

Screenshot worksheet EM


Probabilites for each country to win the Euro 2008

Screenshot worksheet outright


 

Detailed Help

The Worksheet "outright" displays each team's current implied probability to win the UEFA Euro 2008.;

The Worksheet "EM" offers the following options:;

Enter your match forecasts:

Enter your expected scores into the cells "Goals Team 1" "Goals Team 2" (e.g. "2" and "1");
The column "Result" at the right-hand side shows the corresponding match result:
"1" (team 1 wins), "2" (team 2 wins) oder "X" (draw);
The column "Prob." at the right-hand side shows the implied probability for your forecasted match result (1, 2 or X)
Check what the respective match results imply for the group standings (at the right) and for the final play-offs (below).

Display the most likely tournament scenario:

The implied probabilities draw on the latest average betting odds delivered by www.tip-ex.com.
In order to get the latest odds and the corresponding implied probabilities, click the button "Load Current Odds".
The button "Estimate Results" triggers an automatic forecast (based on implied probabilities) for all those matches for which you did not provide a personal forecast.

Load the latest match results:

In order to load the latest match results into the cells "Goals Team 1" & "Goals Team 2", please press the button "Load Latest Results".

Moreover:

By clicking the "Help"-button you return to this page. Press "Clear All" in order to delete all your entries. (Beware: cannot be undone.)
Click the Links like "Quarter Finals" at the top of the work- sheet "EM" in order to go directly to the respective rounds.

More on Odds and Implied Probabilities

The implied probabilities on worksheet WM are based on the latest betting odds by www.tip-ex.com.

The implied probabilities for a specific bet are calculated as follows: Let Oi be the European quota for a specific outcome. Then, the implied probability Pi for this specific outcome is:
Pi = Oi-1 / [O1-1 +...+ Oj-1 +...+ On-1]
where indexes 1...n denote all possible outcomes for this specific bet.

If a match has already been played, then the implied probabilities are, of course, 100% for the realised outcome, and 0% for the others.
This workbook only considers bets on match outcomes (1, 2 or X), and the bet on the outright winner of the tournament.

In case no betting odds are available for a specific match pairing, and if this match is to be forecasted, then the odds for the outright winner are used to determine the winner.
In case two odds tie, an arbitrary ranking decides on the likely winner.

Disclaimer

Concerning this Microsoft Excel file on behalf of its user ("user"), its programmer Stefan Zeugner ("programmer"), and of WestLB AG ("WestLB"):

This Excel worksheet is intended for free redistribution. The user may dispose of it as she/he wishes, conditional on the grounds that she/he makes no changes to the parts of the worksheet which are password-protected. The odds on which the "implied probabilities" in the worksheets are based are provided by Tip-Ex International Limited (www.tip-ex.com/tmpl/tmpl_contact.html). Neither Tip-Ex, nor WestLB nor the programmer assume any responsibility for the proper functioning or content of this worksheet.

Tip-Ex will calculate average odds data with due care, which are to be provided via the programmer. No assurance of the accuracy of data or forecasts can be given. Neither of the parties mentioned is entering any form of contractual commitment regarding the supply of data updates or user support of this product.

Technical Details

Minimum Requirements:
Excel 97 or later
Windows operating system with the following ActiveX objects:

This workbook is composed of two main modules:
The main tournament plan on worksheet EM is entirely based on standard Excel formulas, i.e. works entirely without macros

Everthing concerning implied probabilities is dependent on macros: Therefore enabling macros is crucial to the proper functioning of this workbook (Moreover, language choice is also dependent on macros).
The macros are triggered by the buttons on worksheet EM The buttons "Load Latest Results" and "Load Current Odds" use macros to call the internet explorer object in order to "read" an XML online - whose data is then processed and saved into this workbook.

Contact

Programmed by Stefan Zeugner, 2008.

Rue du Métal 23
B-1060 Brussels

Programmed for the Fixed Income Analysis department of WestLB AG.

Managing director: Jean-Christophe Curtillet
Fixed Income Analysis
Markets Research
WestLB AG
Herzogstr. 15
D-40217 Düsseldorf